28 March 2026
Wage growth continuing to slow as unemployment remains unchanged
NIESR’s March 2026 Wage Tracker shows average earnings grew only 3.9% in the three months to January 2026, the first time the headline figure has been below 4% since November 2020. Public sector wages increased by 5.9% while private sector wages increased only 3.5%.
Despite recent inflationary pressures, NIESR forecasts overall wage growth will reduce to 3% by the middle of 2026, with potential increases in the second half of the year.
Unemployment remained at 5.2%, with a slight rise in employment being offset by increased labour supply. However, unemployment among young people rose to 14.5%. Vacancy numbers are down to their lowest level since 2015 (excluding the pandemic), underlining the weakness in the employment market.
Read more on the latest wage and employment statistics.
Despite recent inflationary pressures, NIESR forecasts overall wage growth will reduce to 3% by the middle of 2026, with potential increases in the second half of the year.
Unemployment remained at 5.2%, with a slight rise in employment being offset by increased labour supply. However, unemployment among young people rose to 14.5%. Vacancy numbers are down to their lowest level since 2015 (excluding the pandemic), underlining the weakness in the employment market.
Read more on the latest wage and employment statistics.
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