24 April 2026
UK Economy - unemployment dips but inflation lifts
NIESR’s April 2026 Wage Tracker shows that unemployment unexpectedly dipped from 5.2% to 4.9% in the three months to February. Average earnings growth continued to slow, rising by 3.6%, down from a rate of 3.9% in the previous period and down from 5.9% a year earlier. Public sector wages increased by 5.2%.
NIESR forecasts overall wage growth will still reduce to 3% by the middle of 2026, with potential increases in the second half of the year.
The inflation tracker showed CPI inflation rising from 3.0% to 3.3% in March, with fuel prices being the biggest contributor to the increase following the war in the Middle East.
NIESR expect inflation to have a small decline in April but then continue in an upward trend, remaining above 3% and potentially reaching 4%.
Read the latest Wage Tracker and Inflation Tracker from NIESR.
NIESR forecasts overall wage growth will still reduce to 3% by the middle of 2026, with potential increases in the second half of the year.
The inflation tracker showed CPI inflation rising from 3.0% to 3.3% in March, with fuel prices being the biggest contributor to the increase following the war in the Middle East.
NIESR expect inflation to have a small decline in April but then continue in an upward trend, remaining above 3% and potentially reaching 4%.
Read the latest Wage Tracker and Inflation Tracker from NIESR.
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