01 June 2026
UK economy – inflation down and wages up
After a dip in unemployment in February, the rate edged back towards January’s level, rising from 4.9% to 5.0%. Employment numbers also rose due to an increase in the number of people coming into the workforce. Over the coming year, unemployment is expected to peak at 5.5%.
NIESR’s Wage Tracker shows that average earnings growth rose, from 3.6% to 4.1%. Public sector pay continues to decline from a peak last year following significant pay awards, and is now at 4.8% from 5.2%. Overall wage growth is expected to fall to 3.6% by the middle of 2026.
The inflation tracker showed CPI inflation falling in April from 3.3% to 2.8%, though the forecast is still for inflation to rise to as high as 4.0% by the end of the year. The effect of the military action in the Middle East is still contributing, with the cost of fuel and lubricants rising 26%.
Read the latest Wage Tracker and Inflation Tracker from NIESR.
NIESR’s Wage Tracker shows that average earnings growth rose, from 3.6% to 4.1%. Public sector pay continues to decline from a peak last year following significant pay awards, and is now at 4.8% from 5.2%. Overall wage growth is expected to fall to 3.6% by the middle of 2026.
The inflation tracker showed CPI inflation falling in April from 3.3% to 2.8%, though the forecast is still for inflation to rise to as high as 4.0% by the end of the year. The effect of the military action in the Middle East is still contributing, with the cost of fuel and lubricants rising 26%.
Read the latest Wage Tracker and Inflation Tracker from NIESR.
0 Comments
01 June 2026