14 February 2026
UK economic outlook improving, though uncertainty over labour market
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has published its latest economic outlook for the UK economy. Despite a slowing momentum in economic growth, the economy is ‘in a state closer to normal than at any other point this decade’.
Inflation remains above target but is expected to fall sharply in April, leading to expectations of a further interest rate cut. NIESR’s GDP growth forecast of 1.4% for 2026 is above trend, leading to an overall favourable outlook.
The do highlight the challenges posed by geopolitical uncertainty, and also the lack of clarity of drivers of the slowing labour market – is it due to a cooling of the jobs market or more structural change?
Read more about the NIESR economic outlook.
Inflation remains above target but is expected to fall sharply in April, leading to expectations of a further interest rate cut. NIESR’s GDP growth forecast of 1.4% for 2026 is above trend, leading to an overall favourable outlook.
The do highlight the challenges posed by geopolitical uncertainty, and also the lack of clarity of drivers of the slowing labour market – is it due to a cooling of the jobs market or more structural change?
Read more about the NIESR economic outlook.
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