27 February 2026
CIPD labour market outlook shows weakening employment expectations
The CIPD has published its latest Labour Market Outlook which shows low expectations of employment growth. The quarterly survey is based on feedback from over 2,000 employers in the private and public sector.
The overarching measure is the net employment balance – the difference between employers who expect to see higher staff levels in the next quarter and those who expect lower levels. The balance remains positive but weak at +7 compared to +9 for the previous period.
In the public sector, it has fallen to -11 and has been below zero for the last four quarters. This weakening employment outlook is reflected in fewer employers anticipating problems filling vacancies, down to 15%. It is also visible in slowing pay, with the average pay rises expected to be around 3% - below the current 4.2% wage inflation.
Read the CIPD’s Labour Market Outlook.
The overarching measure is the net employment balance – the difference between employers who expect to see higher staff levels in the next quarter and those who expect lower levels. The balance remains positive but weak at +7 compared to +9 for the previous period.
In the public sector, it has fallen to -11 and has been below zero for the last four quarters. This weakening employment outlook is reflected in fewer employers anticipating problems filling vacancies, down to 15%. It is also visible in slowing pay, with the average pay rises expected to be around 3% - below the current 4.2% wage inflation.
Read the CIPD’s Labour Market Outlook.
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